Forecasting Medicine Use and Controlling Supply Chains

Accurately forecasting medication use has long been a pain point within medical systems, as has finding the balance between over- and under-ordering medications (to the detriment of patients). In recent years, this tightrope has been further complicated by ongoing drug shortages and further exacerbated by supply chain disruptions caused by natural disasters. According to the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists (ASHP), a record-high 323 active drug shortages were reported in the first quarter of 2024.  

Drug shortages are complex, multifaceted problems requiring solutions at various points across the drug pipeline. While some elements can only be addressed at the manufacturer level or via regulators, others are controlled by hospitals, such as how medications are ordered and managed.  

A digital transformation is now underway to enhance the visibility, tracking, and management of every vial. This evolution has far-reaching benefits, from helping stakeholders to navigate shortages, to providing visibility in the event of a drug recall, to protecting patient safety. Interoperability, or the ability of systems and platforms to work together through the sharing of data and insights, is a major limiting factor for collaboration across medication supply chains. It requires disparate technologies and platforms to speak the same language. With a shared language, the totality of information can be pooled and analyzed in a myriad of different ways to streamline areas such as inventory management.  

Digital, interoperable platforms are also capable of helping to address regulatory challenges, such as Drug Supply Chain Security Act (DSCSA) requirements for visibility into the lifecycle of medications from manufacturer to hospital. In the future, it’s entirely feasible to imagine these systems evolving to make the most of machine learning and AI, exponentially increasing their value.  

Better tracking technology
 

It all starts with tracking technology. Standards must be in place to ensure that the data being fed into a tracking system is high-quality, timely, and reliable. With traditional barcode-based medication tracking, data quality can be hard to qualify and is prone to human error. To address this, leading organizations throughout the pharmaceutical supply chain – from drug manufacturers and distributors through to health systems – are transitioning to radio frequency identification (RFID) technology. RFID allows medications to be tagged and tracked with a high level of accuracy from the manufacturer to the point of care, generating a wealth of reliable unit-level data. Applying standards to the use of this technology ensures this data is high quality and universal. In the case of RFID technology, GS1 standards are quickly becoming the industry gold standard.  

In the near term, this data can help monitor the location and status of medications with reduced manual intervention and overheads. During a shortage, this level of insight can be invaluable, reducing stockouts and helping ensure continuity of operations. Longer-term, this comprehensive medication data can be analyzed to give a clear and accurate view of usage trends. Empowered with these insights, stakeholders can make informed inventory decisions such as rationing supply across a system during an active shortage or limiting the over-purchase of medications to alleviate pressure on the supply chain. 

An insightful future
 

In the same way that high-quality data and interoperable systems can enable supply chain visibility and medication management across systems, they can also improve day-to-day workflows. By making it more seamless to gather inventory data, time to focus on core responsibilities and enable a more seamless flow of information is gained.  

In my view, the future of medication management lies in harnessing data to empower manufacturers. Through this data, companies will be empowered to optimize supply chains, enhance patient safety, and meet regulatory requirements effectively. The insights enabled through new technologies, including AI, are near-limitless. Paired with accurate data through RFID technology and broader interoperability, they will unlock unprecedented opportunities for efficiency and innovation, ultimately transforming how drugs are transported and managed across the life sciences ecosystem. By adopting these solutions, the pharmaceutical industry not only addresses its current challenges but also paves the way for a more resilient and patient-focused future.