Disrupted Development

As US president Donald Trump continues to impose his various agendas, we summarize the latest news and how it affects the manufacturing, distribution, and consumption of pharmaceuticals.

Trump has initiated Section 232 investigations into pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports, citing national security concerns over US reliance on foreign production. Announced on April 14, analysts are preparing for 10-25 percent tariffs by mid-May. Stakeholders have warned of potential drug shortages, higher costs, and economic downturns. The tariff strategy has already impacted US stock markets and economic forecasts. ​As of April 2025, J.P. Morgan Research has increased the probability of a global recession in 2025 to 60 percent, up from 40 percent, primarily due to heightened trade policy uncertainty. The recent implementation of "Liberation Day" tariffs, including a universal 10 percent tariff and a 145 percent tariff on Chinese imports, poses risks to global growth, according to Bruce Kasman, chief global economist at J.P. Morgan, who said: “[w]hat remains is still enough to push the US and China — and thus likely the global economy — into a recession this year.”

Trump's measures are expected to disrupt supply chains, dampen business sentiment, and elevate inflationary pressures. While the global economy has shown moderate expansion, the potential for a US-led recession remains a concern, with possible spillover effects on the Eurozone and other regions.​

Elsewhere, and in a televised interview, Health Secretary RFK Jr. distanced himself from drastic public health funding cuts, claiming ignorance and attributing most reductions to diversity, equity, and inclusion programs. This statement came amid renewed measles outbreaks, with Kennedy’s vaccine skepticism drawing intense criticism. Public health leaders, including Georges Benjamin of the American Public Health Association, have called for his resignation, citing RFK Jr’s disregard for scientific evidence.

Further controversies include Trump’s rollback on the NIH’s scientific integrity policy, which he claims has become politicized. This move has sparked concern among scientists who fear increased political interference in research. A key consequence has been a new NIH initiative to investigate the cause of autism – a topic long entangled in vaccine misinformation. The new study has raised alarms about legitimizing discredited vaccine-autism links.

The administration has abruptly terminated several NIH research grants, prompting lawsuits from state attorney generals and NIH scientists. The legal challenges cite violations of the Administrative Procedure Act and claim politically motivated targeting of contentious topics.

Citing national security, the NIH has blocked researchers from countries such as China and Russia from accessing vital US health data repositories. Critics argue this move, though based on a Biden-era executive order, will severely hamper global efforts to study diseases such as cancer and Alzheimer’s.

The administration disbanded the federal advisory panel on human research protections, eliminating expert oversight of ethical and legal health research. Concurrently, the CDC suffered drastic staff and funding cuts, especially in its STD, HIV, and environmental health programs. Affected divisions include those managing lead exposure, asthma, and radiation risks.

Columbia University, having received around $690 million in NIH grants in 2024, is among the universities sanctioned under a broad administrative crackdown on academic institutions perceived to support diversity. Other elite institutions facing a funding freeze include Harvard University, after refusing to cede to Trump’s demands.

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For more insight into Trump’s impact on pharma, take a look at our recent roundtable discussion.